Prelim numbers for STRIKEFORCE: Nashville.

The  overnights have come in and, as expected, the news is not good for Strikeforce.

STRIKEFORCE: Nashville averaged 2.63 million viewers, a drop of 31% from the overnights of the first Strikeforce show on CBS.

Here is how it went from half hour to half hour:

9:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.57 million (4th among networks), Adults18-49: 0.8/ 3 (4th)
9:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.55 million (4th), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (4th)
10:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.89 million (3rd), A18-49: 1.2/ 4 (2nd)
10:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.52 million (#3rd), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (2nd)

These numbers are bad, very bad. Honestly, to secure a quarterly slot and a new contract, SF needs the final number to be 4.5 million or so. Worst case would need to be no less than the first show, which ended up at 4.042 million. And this is not simply a case of the MMA community seeing these as bad, the media that covers ratings are calling them bad and that will be heard by the higher ups at CBS.

And the mess with Team Gracie and Jason Miller will hurt them with the network as well. The fighters were told, in advance, that they were expected to behave in a professional manner which makes the post-main event mess even worse.  One more note about that: This is the 3rd embarrassing situation that Nick Diaz has found himself  in in the last few years. He had a scuffle with KJ Noons in the cage, the whole licensing mess last year and now this. I understanding being true to yourself, but he is hurting himself and the companies he works for. Nate seems all too happy to follow his brother down this destructive career path.

Strikeforce had had a 2 fight deal with CBS and that ended with last nights show. At best, SF will have to focus on the Showtime cards for a while and try to earn another shot on CBS. Worst case is CBS closes the door permanently.

Getting CBS was a key part of SF's plans to slowly move to a PPV model. The idea was that CBS would allow them to establish stars and become marketable enough that folks would see enough value in SF to pay for it. Without PPV, SF is relegated to a distant #2 and won't be able to woo top fighters to the brand.

This will also give M-1 a stronger position from which to negotiate from. The numbers certainly suggest that while Fedor was able to match the Elite/CBS numbers, he was a big part of the first show's popularity.

One other potential effect of this is that it will make re-signing Jake Shields even harder. They won't be able to offer as much exposure or the promise of  PPV money down the line.