Thursday, April 29, 2010

Week 5 of TUF XI continues to look good.

Episode five of THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER XI did a 1.3 rating with an average audience of 1.8 million.

According to Spike, the show also did a 2.6 in the Males 18-34 demo.

This season continues to be, excluding TUF 10, the strongest since TUF 3. While it is likely numbers will have a dip or two before the end of the season, things are looking good overall.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Week four of TUF XI continues strong season with increased ratings.

Episode four of The Ultimate Fighter 11 delivered season highs with a 1.5 overall rating, a 2.4 in Males 18 to 34, 1.9 in Males 18 to 49 and an average audience of 2 million.

Almost from day one, folks have been certain that the numbers would drop down to the levels of seasons 7-9 and even see some eps go under 1.0 and while that may still happen, Tito and Chuck appear to be keeping folks coming back for more.

It does not hurt that the fights are better than those on last season where the HWs plodded about until they gassed out.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4:  1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Yet another perspective on the incident after STRIKEFORCE: Nashville.

Ok, I realize damn near everyone and their dog has sounded off on the battle royale that took place after the main event at Saturday night's Strikeforce card. Now I am going to toss my own hat into the ring (whatever that means):

In my opinion, virtually all parties involved are, at least to some extent, to blame.

Jason Miller: Jason should not have interrupted Jake’s moment and his post-fight interview. If nothing else, it was rude and unprofessional. Even if he had been told to confront Jake, he should have waited until after the interview. We have seen Penn face-off against GSP at UFC 87 and Lesnar face off against Carwin at  UFC 111, but both times they were brought into the cage and waited until after the post-fight celebration and interview. I don’t think Miller was asked to do it, he simply wanted some of the spotlight and that is bush league. I will say I do applaude your decision to make a public apology. It was the right thing to do.

Gilbert Melendez, Nate and Nick Diaz: This was not a street fight and a member of your posse was not being jumped by a bunch of guys. If a fight did break out, let Jake defend himself. Interjecting yourselves into it was uncalled for and helped make the incident far worse than it needed to be. If you want to be a street thug, stay out of MMA and do it on your own time. For Nick, this is the 3rd embarrassing situation in the last few years. I understanding being true to yourself, but you are hurting yourself, the companies you work for and the sport you claim to love. Nate, you seem all too happy to follow your brother down this destructive career path. If you guys opt to behave like this, don’t complain when headling spots, title shots and/or other opportunities don’t come as quickly as they should. Your actions may well leave the powers that be leery of trusting you to do the right thing. Gilbert has apologized and Nick said "I apologize, it wasn't my fault."

Jake Shields: I can imagine how annoyed/upset you must have been to see Jason Miller stick his nose into your interview. He should not have done so, but was that worth getting into a fight? You have expressed a desire to face the best in the world and to become a standard-barer for the sport. That means acting like one.

Tennessee State Athletic Commission: While it was Strikeforce’s show, it was run under your supervision. Throughout the show, folks seem to wander in and out of the cage. Things could have been run better and now that something has happened, action needs to be taken. Be it reprimands, suspensions and/or fines, examples need to be made so this is less likely to occur in the future. Had the Noons/Diaz incident occurred in Nevada, Cali or another regulated state, it is likely that there would have been consequences. Let us make sure folks don’t think they get away with this kind of thing in the future.

Strikeforce: Some of what I said about the TSAC applies to you: There were, at times, dozens of people milling about in the cage. There needs to be restrictions as to who gets in and when. Event production has been an issue in the past with pacing and getting bouts underway in a timely manner, perhaps it is time to bring in some more experienced folk to handle the actual running of the shows. The UFC was quite smart when they hired Burt Weston, a man that makes sure everything is as smooth as can be. The right person will make sure things are more organized and give your other people less things to worry about.

Gus Johnson: I realize your comments were on the spur of the moment, but had this been a basketball game, would you have said Sometimes these things happen in basketball? Fights do occur in BB and happen more often than in MMA (obviously not including the scheduled bouts!) and your comments were off base and hurt a sport you appear to want to be a part of.

One last person: Caser Gracie. Today, Caser made the following statement:

"So a fight broke out at a fight. That's not a good thing, and I'm not condoning it ... but a lot of people are jumping on this because they're babies. The same night, they had an NBA fight. They want to talk about a fight at an MMA fight between MMA fighters."

"How would it be damaging?" Gracie said. "If you're a sports fan, you're used to seeing fights all the time. It's really, seriously, a bunch of pussies latching on to this and trying to make it a bigger deal than it is. Is it a good thing? It's not a good thing. We're sorry. Everybody involved has apologized.

"But you've got a lot of crybabies that are going to latch on to this to the bitter end, but they're not going to say anything when a hockey game has fights every night. Young sport, old sport – people are making a much bigger deal than this. It's hype; it's all hype."

After reading this, is anyone shocked that it was his students that started the actual fight and did most of the damage? Caser, you are a teacher and are preparing the next generation of the sports’ participants. You mention hockey, but it is an accepted sport today and a lot has been done in the past several decades to reign in the fighting, violence and injuries. The same is true of football. The games today are different than 50 years ago and the players can’t get away with nearly as much. And even when it does happen, penalties are applied and rarely do we see several people jumping on an individual, as your students did. And kicks to a down fighter are not even allowed in the actual bouts, much less afterwards. Once upon a time, both of those sports were seen as barbaric and the players hooligans. It took years and numerous changes to the rules and regulations to get past that. MMA is a young sport and if we want it to eventually be embraced by the media and majority of the public, if we want to see it in all 50 states, if we want it to truly a global pastime….we need to think before acting.

Your own students have, as I said before, been involved in less than professional behavior in the past. They have been criticized but maybe the spotlight should be put on you. While most trainers also work to make their students professionals and ambassadors to the sport, you appear to dismiss this as something unimportant. In the current season of the Ultimate Fighter, Tito actually brought in a P.R person to help the fighters prepare themselves for the future and to help them become true professionals. A little of that would not hurt Team Gracie. Truth be told, that inicident won't help Strikeforce keep going on CBS. Prior to the event, it was made clear CBS wanted everyone on their best behavior.

If you opt to ignore this, if you simply dismiss the pussies and crybabies, you risk having the sport you love pass you by. That would be a real shame. You are a legendary figure and one that should go down in the history books as being a part of the shaping of MMA.

And before I stop, let me say a few words about Dana White and his reaction to this:

Now Dana has offered up his own opinions on this and, not surprisingly, was quick to not simply criticize Strikeforce and CBS, but to attack them as well. Doing so only lessens the value and impact of his comments. Instead of simply addressing what happened, he had to complain about CBS not signing with him. The UFC is not part of what happened thus is not relevant here. Including them also is distracting as some on-line fans have used it to make this more of a UFC vs. Strikeforce situation. Once again, a more thought-out approach would have been more effective. A lesson he can’t seem to learn.

Some have been calling out certainly call Dana out on over-reacting, something he constantly does, and calling him a hypocrite because of the altercation at UFC 45, but jumping up and down about a UFC incident seven years ago is kind of silly. Cabbage/Tank did indeed happen, but it was ages ago and things have changed, both inside the UFC as well as outside, since then. The sport in general is held to higher standards.

The time to talk about it is right now. When actions have been taken, when penalties have been applied, we must move on. There are too many wonderful things to look forward to, to dwell on one regrettable moment in the rich history of our beloved sport.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Prelim numbers for STRIKEFORCE: Nashville.

The  overnights have come in and, as expected, the news is not good for Strikeforce.

STRIKEFORCE: Nashville averaged 2.63 million viewers, a drop of 31% from the overnights of the first Strikeforce show on CBS.

Here is how it went from half hour to half hour:

9:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.57 million (4th among networks), Adults18-49: 0.8/ 3 (4th)
9:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.55 million (4th), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (4th)
10:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.89 million (3rd), A18-49: 1.2/ 4 (2nd)
10:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.52 million (#3rd), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (2nd)

These numbers are bad, very bad. Honestly, to secure a quarterly slot and a new contract, SF needs the final number to be 4.5 million or so. Worst case would need to be no less than the first show, which ended up at 4.042 million. And this is not simply a case of the MMA community seeing these as bad, the media that covers ratings are calling them bad and that will be heard by the higher ups at CBS.

And the mess with Team Gracie and Jason Miller will hurt them with the network as well. The fighters were told, in advance, that they were expected to behave in a professional manner which makes the post-main event mess even worse.  One more note about that: This is the 3rd embarrassing situation that Nick Diaz has found himself  in in the last few years. He had a scuffle with KJ Noons in the cage, the whole licensing mess last year and now this. I understanding being true to yourself, but he is hurting himself and the companies he works for. Nate seems all too happy to follow his brother down this destructive career path.

Strikeforce had had a 2 fight deal with CBS and that ended with last nights show. At best, SF will have to focus on the Showtime cards for a while and try to earn another shot on CBS. Worst case is CBS closes the door permanently.

Getting CBS was a key part of SF's plans to slowly move to a PPV model. The idea was that CBS would allow them to establish stars and become marketable enough that folks would see enough value in SF to pay for it. Without PPV, SF is relegated to a distant #2 and won't be able to woo top fighters to the brand.

This will also give M-1 a stronger position from which to negotiate from. The numbers certainly suggest that while Fedor was able to match the Elite/CBS numbers, he was a big part of the first show's popularity.

One other potential effect of this is that it will make re-signing Jake Shields even harder. They won't be able to offer as much exposure or the promise of  PPV money down the line.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Ratings for episode three of TUF XI.

Episode three of The Ultimate Fighter 11 did a rating of 1.3 with of TUF 11 generated a 1.3 HH with an average audience of 1.6 million viewers. The broadcast 1.63 in the M18-34 and 1.53 in the M18-49 demos.

MMA Payout has reported the numbers for Episode one of season eleven of The Ultimate Fighter. The show had a rating of 1.3 with a 1.63 for males 18-34, a 1.53 for males 18-49 and an audience of 1.6 million.


Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.

One interesting note is that the key demos have seen drops, but the audience is up slightly. That suggests new viewers coming from other age (and pos gender) groups.

Here is a look at where TUF 9 (10 was Kimbo and thus way higher than all other seaons) was at this point:
1 1.3 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, a 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
2 1.1 rating with a 1.3 in M18-34, a 1.2 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million.
3 0.9 rating with a 1.13 in M18-34, a 1.2 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.2 million.

If TUF were to maintain a 1.2 for the season, it would be a slight step up. Odd are we will see some drops over the course of the season and maybe even a peak when Tito does leave. As long as the ave is a 1.0 or better, the show is safe.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Ratings for Episode 2 of TUF XI.

Episode two of TUF 11 did a 1.2 rating with an ave audience of 1.5 million viewers.

Episode one did a 1.5 with an ave audience of 1.9 million viewers.

By comparison, the second episode of TUF 9 (10 did monster numbers because of Kimbo Slice) did a 1.1 ratings.

Friday, April 2, 2010

TUF 11 starts out on a strong note.

MMA Payout has reported the numbers for Episode one of season eleven of The Ultimate Fighter. The show had a rating of 1.5 with a 2.1 for males 18-34, a 1.9 for males 18-49 and an audience of 1.9 million.

While numbers may indeed drop somewhat, I don't know that I would agree that they will dip below 1.0. By most accounts, Tito and Chuck go at each other and the the initial bouts were exciting enough (Exciting meaning folks got KTFO). I think there will be a drop, but it will still be a bit higher than seasons 6-9. I don't think any season will match season ten.

By comparison:
Ep one of TUF 10: a 2.9 rating with 4.1 million viewers
Ep one of TUF 9: 1.3 rating with a 1.8 in M18-49, 2.1 in M18-34 and an ave audience of 1.8 million.
Ep one of TUF 8: 1.2 rating
Ep one of TUF 7: 1.3 rating

Personally, I think Zuffa needs to space out the seasons more. Twice a year is too much to generate genuine excitement.

One other suggestion would be to shorten the period between the start of filming and the actual Finale. Start playing the first ep as the actual events are unfolding. It might help make things more interesting.

Zuffa has launched the Ultimate Fighter website, so they should put it to use. They like to keep the participants secret until right before the season starts. Instead, announce them all two weeks in advance and post bios and a video clip of each fighter. Give folks a chance to get to know all of them prior to the start. It might make the elimination round a little more interesting. It would also allow folks to connect with those that make it to the house a little faster. As the season goes on, add clips online of the guys talking about their lives, families, hopes and dreams. Again, it would help the viewers become emotionally invested in the fighters.

Lastly, we saw Mike Van Arsdale and Tiki Goshen verbally sparring last season, how about having an Asst. coach from each team square off on the finale? You would have to have Coaches that were all under contract, but it could make things a little more interesting.

Early estimates for UFC 111 very strong.

If early cable estimates are accurate, UFC 111 not only did better than I thought, it did better than anyone thought possible.

According to the latest Wrestling Observer (Subscription required), UFC 111 is in the range of 850,000 buys. That would make it the 6th biggest ppv in the history of the UFC (After 100, 92, 91, 66, 94) along with UFC 101. Since 101, only UFC 104 and 107 managed to hit 500,000 buys.

Now it is important to point out that early numbers can end up being way off. At this point, those estimates are coming from a limited number of providers. In the next 7-10 days, the overall number will become a little more accurate. But even if it does trend downward, it is unlikely to drop more than 100-150k buys, which would still put it a little over my own prediction of 675,000.

If true, it would appear to verify a couple of things:
A) GSP is one of the top draws the UFC has. He does well in the U.S. and brings 100k more buys from Canada. While Lesnar is bigger today, GSP has, with his mainstream appeal, the potential to be bigger down the line. His manager has done an excellent job marketing him to mainstream sponsors. They hired CAA Sports and that has helped them sign deals with the likes of Gatorade and Under Armour.

B) Frank Mir has become a bit of a draw. MMA and Cable insiders give Mir some credit for the 620K buys of 107. Frank is one of the best talkers in MMA. He was quieter than usual, likely afraid of saying the wrong thing after the Lesnar remarks. But his talking for, and his performance at, 107 made an impression with folks.

As I wrote previously, the UFC is hoping 111 starts a hot streak that goes well into the fall. Barring any major injuries, the future. It will be especially interesting to see if the success of 111 provides any momentum for UFC 112, a strong card that has the disadvantage of being on tape delay. It is the strongest overseas card the UFC has ever had and will show us just how much being on tape delay hurts a card. In the past, those cards have generally been weaker than most domestic ones. So while that delay may indeed have hurt them, the quality of the cards also played a part.