Week three of TUF XII sees continued growth.

Episode three of TUF XII saw a slight uptick in the overall audience as the average audience hit 1.8 million, one hundred thousand more than last week.

As I said last week, we won't have a decent idea of just how this season will do until the fifth week or so. If the numbers stay at this level, it will be one of the more successful seasons. Thus far, things have been understated. No fireworks, in or out of the house, but the teasers certainly suggest that chaos is coming.

Confrontations certainly can draw interest, but seasons 7-9 had plenty of that and did some of the weaker ratings. Junie Browne did bring numbers up a tad, but his season delivered lackluster numbers overall.

Episode one: 1.3 rating with a 2.0 in M18-34, a 1.8 in M18-49 and an average audience of 1.6 million.
Episode two: 1.2 rating with 1.84 in M18-34, a 1.7 in M18-49 and an ave audience of 1.7 million.
Episode three: 1.3 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, a 1.71 in M18-49 and an ave audience of 1.8 million.

For comparison, here are the first three eps of season eleven:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.

Fun with numbers: UFC Heavyweight finishes 2010-2006.

Ok, so this time around I have put together the numbers for the UFC Heavyweights for the last five years. I think it is hard to get much out of this because of the thinness of the division. When you look at some of the match-ups, the outcome was pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Regardless, here they are. In the next week or two, I will post the rest of the UFC divisions. SF will follow in late October.

2010 thus far:
# of fights: 27
KO/TKOs: 14 for 52%
Subs: 6 for 22%
Decisions: 7 for 26%

2009:
# of fights: 24
KO/TKOs: 12 for 50%
Subs: 5 for 21%
Decisions: 7 for 29%

2008:
# of fights: 23
KO/TKOs: 17 for 74%
Subs: 3 for 13%
Decisions: 3 for 13%

2007:
# of fights: 13
KO/TKOs: 4 for 31%
Subs: 1 for 13%
Decisions: 8 for 62%

2006:

# of fights: 20
KO/TKOs: 13 for 60%
Subs: 3 for 15%
Decisions: 5 for 25%

Total:
# of fights: 107
KO/TKOs: 59 for 55%
Subs: 18 for 17%
Decisions: 29 for 28%

TUF XII episode two holds onto week one audience.

Two weeks into TUF XII, the numbers look solid,

Episode two did a 1.2 rating with a 1.84 in the Males 18-34 demo, 1.7 in Males 18-49 and had an average audience of 1.7 million.

By comparison, the second ep of TUF XI did a 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million.

The series appeared to be in trouble when seasons 8 and 9 saw individual episodes dip below 1.0, a number that is generally seen as the benchmark for success. One thing I find interesting is that last season, and so far this season, were tame in terms of hijinks and mayhem. They focused more on the fights and less on pranks and drinking. While there is no doubt that Evans, Jackson and Kimbo are partially responsible for the renewed interest, I wonder if the lack of wackiness has helped keep some of those folks coming back for more?

 I don't think we will have any real idea of just how well the season will do until episode four or five.

Episode one: 1.3 rating with a 2.0 in M18-34, a 1.8 in M18-49 and an average audience of 1.6 million.
Episode two: 1.2 rating with 1.84 in M18-34, a 1.7 in M18-49 and an ave audience of 1.7 million.

Meaningless statistics: UFC Finishes 2006-2010

2010 thus far:
# of fights: 165
KO/TKOs: 51 for 31%
Subs: 40 for 24%
Decisions: 73 for 44%
DQ: 1 for 1%

2009:
# of fights: 221
KO/TKOs: 70 for 32%
Subs: 54 for 24%
Decisions: 95 for 43%
DQ: 1 for .5%
NC: 1 for .5%

2008:
# of fights: 199
KO/TKOs: 83 for 42%
Subs: 52 for 26%
Decisions: 64 for 32%

2007:
# of fights: 154
KO/TKOs: 50 for 33%
Subs: 48 for 31%
Decisions: 54 for 35%
DQ: 1 for .5%
NC: 1 for .5%

2006:

# of fights: 157
KO/TKOs: 55 for 35%
Subs: 50 for 32%
Decisions: 52 for 33%

Total:
# of fights: 896
KO/TKOs: 309 for 35%
Subs: 244 for 27%
Decisions: 338 for 38%
DQ: 3 for -
NC: 2 for -

Sarah Kaufman shines, in cage and ratings, for STRIKEFORCE Challengers 9.

Sarah Kaufman's relationship with Strikeforce has been rocky. Earlier this year, she talked about being a free agent despite being the SF 135 lb champion. She expressed a desire to get back with Strikeforce, only to later find out that they exercised the championship clause without telling her and extended her previous contract.

Leading up to this card, she talked about being frustrated at not just being relegated to a challengers card, but not even headlining.

Then, on Saturday night, she let her skills do the talking. She stopped Roxanne Modafferi, via a wicked power bomb, in the second round. After the fight, she again talked about wanting to be on a bigger card.

Some have pointed out that very few women fighters draw and that SF is being right by simply having women's fighting. There is a saying, if you are going to do something, you should do it right.

The ratings seem to back Sarah up: While the show averaged 197,000 viewers, it peaked for Sarah's fight with 254,000 viewers.

The idea behind the Challengers cards is to showcase up and coming talent. Sarah is a champion and should be put front and center. If the average fan thinks that SF does not care about the ladies 135 champ and division, it is unlikely that he will either. I am not saying she should be headlining the main cards, but why not have the women's title fights in the middle of the regular cards. If not, why have them at all?

Finally, the Challengers cards feel almost like throwaway cards. If the idea is to use them to build up guys, they should be promoting them a hell of a lot more. less than 200k watched this card and that is a bad number no matter how you spin it. And it is not just the Challengers cards that lack the PR build, we have seen it in the past for some of the regular Showtime cards. Strikeforce is not big enough that they can let cards fly in under the radar, they need to work hard to build EVERY card. They need to not simply establish a solid fanbase, but build it up. That is something they have failed to do.

The SF cards usually have some fun fights, ones that could help convince casual fans that Strikeforce is the real deal and is must-see MMA. If not for Sarah Kaufman, I don't know that anyone would have been talking about this card at all.

If Werdum and Fedor dance again, who does Overeem face? I have a suggestion.

Last Saturday’s main event, while exciting and note worthy, has left Strikeforce with a dilemma. The obvious next step appears to be a rematch between Fedor Emilienenko and Frabrico Werdum. Personally, I don’t know that I agree with that since A) A win by Fedor leaves Werdum in a position not much better than he was in prior to beating Fedor. B) Fedor has but one more bout on his Strikeforce deal. If he wins, he could walk away and SF would be left with a weakened heavyweight division.

But Fedor and co want a rematch and Werdum wants a rematch. Since M1 has shown an unwillingness to do anything that does not appeal to them, it seems all be assured that a rematch will take place.

Now the problem with this is that it leaves the heavyweight champ, Alistar Overeem, on the sidelines twiddling his thumbs. As most know, Overeem wont the HW title two years ago and only recently defended it (when he mugged Brett Rogers). To have him sit on his ass for another six to eight months is asinine and would further reduce the credibility of the title, something SF can ill afford.

Looking at the SF HW division, while there are some solid fighters, none really are in position to challenge for the title. Big Foot Silva is one fight past his loss to Werdum and Rogers just lost to Overeem. Sergie Kaeriejre may earn a shot down the line, but he has not yet fought in SF and not only does he not deserve the fight, but he is an unknown to U.S. fans (Ok, an unknown to those that are not MMA geeks).

Fearing for the well being of Strikeforce, I pondered this and have thought of one solution. It has it’s downsides, but would give the division some depth and provide an instant challenge for the title.

Sign Mirko Cro-cop. Mirko just became a free agent, having recently completed his contract with the UFC. He is on a two fight win streak, including one on one of the biggest PPVs in MMA history. He also has some history with Overeem. The two fought in Japan for the Dream organization in a bout that was ruled a no contest after Alistar smooshed Mirko’s family jewels. Both chattered a bit about and certainly could deliver some entertaining pre-fight banter. Would Mirko win? Probably not, \but he still has the tools and name value to make him a worthy addition.

There are a couple of downsides. The first is that it will almost certainly push Dana over the edge and make Strikeforce his mortal enemy. And while that will provide hours of entertainment for MMA fans and media, it also means more road bumps for SF down the line. Dana is not without power and we all know he is more than willing to use (abuse?) it.

The second negative is that Mirko will come with a fairly high price tag. He has also expressed some doubts about his future in MMA and writing big checks to a less than motivated fighter is a dicey proposition. I think that fights with Overeem, Werdum and/or Fedor could be appealing to Mirko.
But Mirko/Overeem is a solid bout and one that would allow the Werdum/Fedor rematch to take place with keeping the title active.

Fedor vs. Werdum delivers nice numbers.

MMAJunkie is reporting that Saturday's Fedor vs. Werdum event, on Showtime, had an average audience of 550,000 viewers. According to the site, that number includes DVR and on-demand viewings. The main event, when including the aforementioned viewings, ended up over 700,000.

These numbers are good. I would say that anything under 400k would have been a failure and anything over 450k is a success.

Between the gate/attendance, the ratings and the media fallout from the event, Strikeforce should regain some of the momentum they had lost in the past couple of months. One has to assume they are hoping it will bring CBS back to the table. Strikeforce previously had a two event deal with CBS and that deal ended with the Nashville card.

While this bout was obviously a big one, it did not hurt that Strikeforce and Showtime promoted it a fair amount and this was a bout that had been talked about for some time. Strikeforce needs to get the ball rolling earlier for upcoming cards and get chatter going. While they obviously don't have the resources Zuffa does, the UFC cards are generally known months in advance. There is online chatter well before the official marketing push starts up.

In the future, Strikeforce should take the position that there no minor cards and give every show a proper build-up, as well as making an effort to make the major bouts known earlier.

UFC 114 posed to become second biggest PPV in UFC history.

From Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer (Subscription required):

Some updates on PPV numbers. UFC 114 (Quinton Jackson vs. Rashad Evans) based on the latest cable estimates is at 1,050,000 buys putting it at No. 2 on the company’s all-time list (well, tied with the 2006 Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz match). That’s up from the first day estimates. As far as confirmation, trending patterns indicated a big number, but not quite that big (maybe 850,000) but the reports on bar traffic (through the roof, very close to that of UFC 100) would coincide with the larger number.

Wow, that is more than most expected it to do. The initial estimates were around 900k. I think it is safe to say the UFC has considerable momentum right now. Last year, the UFC did eight million buys and it seems a safe bet they will pass that this year.

Estimated buy rates of late:
UFC 115: 520,000
UFC 114: 1,050,000
UFC 113 520,000
UFC 112 500,000
UFC 111 770,000

Dan Miller to get another chance with the UFC.

MMA Junkie is reporting that despite losing three fights in a row, the UFC will not be showing Dan Miller the door just yet.

The article cites somebody close to Miller as saying the MW will get one more chance to break his losing streak.

Miller's three losses are to Sonnen, Maia and Bisping. Prior to the Bisping bout, it came out just how tough things have been for Dan. He and his wife lost their first child just before the Sonnen fight and their second child, born weeks before the Maia fight, has faced serious health problems and has been battling for survival.

Here is hoping his next bout is against a slightly less challenging opponent. Not to say I think he should get an easy fight, but maybe somebody the way up as opposed to a top 15 guy. He is still 3-3 in the UFC and 11-4 overall.

Rampage Greatest Hits

Anchor Bay
Release date: DVD: June 1st,l 2010, Blu-ray: June 8th, 2010
MSRP: DVD: $19.97, Blu-ray: $29.97

Quinton Rampage Jackson is about to gain more fame than ever before, thanks to his potrayal of B.A. Boracus in the upcoming film version of THE A-TEAM. But Jackson is already famous in the MMA world as one of the hardest hitting Light Heavyweights alive. Jackson first came to fame in the now defunct Pride Fighting Champions of Japan and eventually came to the UFC, in 2007, and won the LHW championship.

Last year, Quinton and UFC president Dana White got into a spat about Jackson pulling out of a planned bout so he could star in THE A-TEAM. Neither guy is shy when it comes to speaking his mind and a very colorful pissing match played out on the internet.

Jackson and White eventually made up and the UFC is now releasing Rampage Greatest Hits (Why is it not Rampage's Greatest hits?). Had Jackson not come back, this collection might have had a totally different line-up filled with Jackson's losses and mugshot. But the boys did make up and each has since found other targets for their anger.

There is a voice-over introduction by Jonathan Adams, setting the scene before bouts.

Fights included:
Rampage Jackson vs. Yuki Ishikawa (Pride 17)
Jackson vs. Igor Vovchnchyn (Pride 22)
Jackson vs. Kevin Randleman (Pride 25)
Jackson vs. Chuck Liddell I (Pride Final Conflict 2003)
Jackson vs. Ricardo Arona (Pride Critical Countdown 2004)
Jackson vs. Marvin Eastman (UFC 67, Quinton's UFC debut)
Jackson vs. Chuck Liddell (UFC 71, Quinton becomes the UFC Light Heavyweight champion)
Jackson vs. Dan Henderson (UFC 75, While not officially a unification bout, Dan was the final Pride 205 pound champion)
Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva (UFC 92)
Jackson vs. Keith Jardine (UFC 96)

It is interesting listening to the differences between Pride commentators Bas Rutan, Stephen Quadros and Mauro Ranallo and the UFC's Joe Rogan and Michael Goldberg. Die-hard MMA fans will argue passionately as to who was the best, but I will simply say that I enjoyed both and found Bas Ruttan co(first Quardos and later Ranallo) more playful.

It is also interesting to listen and watch the differences between the Japanese (Pride) and UFC (U.S. and U.K.) audiences. The UFC crowds are more vocal and rowdy, with those of Pride being more reserved.
I am not going to go into too much detail about the fights themselves, but I will comment on this: It was interesting to re-watch Jackson/Liddell I. UFC President Dana White sat in on commentary and complained (bitched) about Chuck not following the game plan of throwing leg kicks early in the fight. Years later, it came out that Chuck had sustained a hamstring injury prior to the bout. Knowing that, one can understand why Liddell opted to make it a boxing match. I want to stress I am not making excuses for Chuck, he may well have still gotten blasted, but knowing about that injury does make things a little more interesting. As Chuck kept it quiet and Dana had no clue. Even if Chuck had thrown more kicks, Jackson might have still worn him down and put him out. Dana does show some class by offering to bring the UFC crew to Jackson's locker room to help him prepare for the finals latter that night.
While the intent is clearly to make Jackson look good, not including some o his losses certainly weakens this set. Including his Pride debut, a loss to MMA legend Kazushi Sakuraba, would hardly hurt his legacy. Jackson did better than many expected and that historic bout should be here. We hear Jackson say he felt he beat Forrest, yet viewers are not allowed to judge for themselves.
Picture:
The quality is uniformly good. Some of the later UFC bouts look better (especially on the Blu-ray) but nothing looks bad. Some of the older footage does have some issues, but it is minor and certainly does not affect the overall viewing pleasure. The Blu-ray does feature the UFC bouts in HD and they look great. The Pride bouts are in a 4:3 ration with the UFC ones in 16:9.
Extras:
Nothing really. This I don't get. Why not toss in some old Pride promos or something? Give us a little extra stuff here! If nothing else, there should be a biography to give folks a look at Jackson and his life. They certainly have the footage from past UFC countdown shows.

While Die-hard MMA fans likely have most of these bouts on separate DVDs, this is a nice collection for casual fans interesting to seeing some of Jackon's older bouts. With the inclusion of aforementioned bouts and some biographical material, this could be a really great release. As it is, it is still a solid disc with bang for the buck.

Order RAMPAGE GREATEST HITS on DVD or Blu-ray.

Jeremy Lynch

Best of WEC coming in September.

Recently the WEC signed a home entertainment deal (DVD, Blu-ray) with Image Entertainment. The first release will be the epic Aldo vs. Faber ppv from last month. I am be talking about that closer to the release date (July 20th), but wanted to give folks a heads up on another release.

On Sept 7th, 2010, Zuffa (parent company of WEC and UFC) and Image Entertainment will UFC Presents: The Best of WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting).

This one disc package will contain the following fights:
Torres vs. Mizugaki
McCullough vs. Cerrone
Faber vs. Pulver I
Torres vs. Maeda
Brown vs. Faber II
Cerrone vs. Henderson

Now I am certainly a fan of the UFC, but I can't recall a WEC show that failed to deliver. This set features some of the best bouts, of the last couple of years, from the WEC. Each of these is stellar. Cerrone/Henderson was considered by many to be the best MMA fight of 2009. Faber/Brown II saw Uriah Faber, despite breaking BOTH hands, give champion Mike Brown everything he could handle for five rounds. Faber/Pulver has a legend (Pulver) squaring off against the (then) reigning Featherweight Champ in Faber and while Faber's victory seemed certain, Jens never gave up and seemed to reach down time and time again to take it to the judges.

The Blu-ray release is $19.98 with the DVD being $14.98.

The Ultimate Fighter's ratings hold steady.

In a season that, outside of X with Kimbo, has been the strongest in quite some time, folks stuck with TUF to watch Tito leave.

Episode ten did a 1.3 rating with an average audience of 1.5 million, the same as last week.

Whether it is the star power of Tito and Chuck, the drama of Tito leaving or simply the new folks from season ten sticking around, this season has been a definite success with an average weekly audience of 1.66 million viewers and an ave rating of 1.3 thus far.

Many of the recent seasons seasons that have had fighters doing insane things and certain guys labeled, or acting like, a bad boy. This season has seen everyone behave for the most part and nobody has really stepped up as a Leben, Gabe or Junnie.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34, a 1.92 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
Episode 6: 1.3 rating with a 1.54 in M18-34, 1.4 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.7 million
Episode 7: 1.3 rating with a 1.9 in m18-34, a 1.7 in m18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million
Episode 8: 1.0 rating with a 1.5 in m18-34, a 1.2 in m18-49 and an ave aud of 1.3 million
Episode 9: 1.3 rating with an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 10: 1.3 rating with an ave aud of 1.5 million

Prelim buyrates for UFC 114 over 900,000.

Dave Meltzer, on Observer Radio, has reported that the early numbers, for UFC 114, suggest a buy rate of 925,000.

That is a little higher than I thought (I was thinking 825-850), but the Prime Time series did great numbers and I think this drew more than usual from the African-American community. I went to Champps in St. Paul and while it was an ave crowd for the first part of the show, it was easily the biggest UFC crowd by the time the main event started. The main event crowd was 25-30% of the final audience. That is more than I have seen before.

This number is higher than many onliners were speculating. MMAPayout and Tapology both predicted a buy rate of around 700,000.

I think 700k would have been the lowest pos this could do and still be success. 800k would be a strong number and 900 has to been seen as a big success. I can't help but wonder what it would have done if this fight took place at UFC 107.


It is worth pointing out that these early numbers can be off by 10-15%. But even so, the worst case would still be around 800,000.

Numbers for episode 9 of TUF, ep 3 of Prime Time:

After a softer week eight, TUF bounced back a bit with a 1.1 rating and an ave audience of 1.5 million.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34, a 1.92 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
Episode 6: 1.3 rating with a 1.54 in M18-34, 1.4 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.7 million
Episode 7: 1.3 rating with a 1.9 in m18-34, a 1.7 in m18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million
Episode 8: 1.0 rating with a 1.5 in m18-34, a 1.2 in m18-49 and an ave aud of 1.3 million
Episode 9: 1.1 rating with an ave aud of 1.5 million

The go home episode of PRIME TIME: Rampage vs. Evans drew 1.1 million viewers, up from 875,000 for the second episode. The debut episode did a show high 1.2 million viewers.

Early numbers for UFC 113.

Early estimates for UFC 113 look to be around 500-540k buys.

Dave Meltzer, in the last Observer (Subscription required and recommended), stated it appears to have done 520,000 and that the first had done 450,000.

Early reports on UFC 113 on 5/8 in Montreal have the show doing 520,000 buys, slightly above the 450,000 that the first Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua fight did. We should note that there were cable reports as high as 687,000 for the show, and trending patterns were only slightly behind GSP vs. Dan Hardy and the highest besides that show since August, which would also indicate something closer to the latter than the former. There are a lot of other measures that also indicate the higher number, but as far as the number of buys from people who would have the numbers and that can be confirmed, the lower number is the best number we've got.

I had heard a broader range of 500-540k, but Meltzer is almost always solid. It should be noted that these early reports can be off by 10-15% and that more reliable numbers should start floating out in another week to week and a half. That said, I will be shocked beyond words if they ends up anywhere NEAR 687k.

My own prediction was 575-600k. Anything over 500k is solid. 520k is not a great number, but it is good for a show that got little real promotion. Zuffa appears to have opted to focus their marketing power on the upcoming Evans/Jackson fight (UFC 114), a card that will do one of the bigger, if not the biggest, buyrate of the year. One thing that is noteworthy: Kimbo Slice's presence on the card does not appear to have had any real impact on the buyrates.

That is not to say he can't still pop some ratings on television, but it does not appear to go beyond free TV.

Ratings slip in week eight of TUF XI.

The numbers took a drop this week as episode eight did a 1.0 with an ave audience of 1.3 million.

General thinking is that the NBA playoffs damaged TUF as the Lakers/Suns game drew over seven million viewers.

I am betting next week will be one of the bigger drawing episodes of the season as the promo announces Tito pulling out of the Liddell fight, we get two fights and there is a confrontation between the coaches.

Thus far, this is the strongest season since TUF V with Pulver and Penn.
Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34, a 1.92 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
Episode 6: 1.3 rating with a 1.54 in M18-34, 1.4 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.7 million
Episode 7: 1.3 rating with a 1.9 in m18-36, a 1.7 in m18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million

TUF XI week seven numbers holding steady.

Just past the half-way point of the season, TUF XI is still drawing strong numbers. Episode seven delivered a 1.3 rating with 1.8 million viewers.

Thus far, this is the strongest season since TUF V with Pulver and Penn.
Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34, a 1.92 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
Episode 6: 1.3 rating with a 1.54 in M18-34, 1.4 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.7 million

Numbers of ep one of PRIME TIME: Rampage vs. Evans looking good.

Episode one of UFC Primetime: Rampage vs. Evans delived a damn impressive 1.2 million veiwers and had a rating of 0.9.

For comparison, the first ep of GSP/Hardy did one million viewers while GSP/Penn did 880,000.

Obviously we don't know if they can sustain those numbers but if they can, UFC 114 will likely be one of the biggest of the year. Don't forget that THE A-TEAM launches in early June and there will be a moderate amount of PR for it in the week leading up to UFC 114.

Meaningless Statistics: Strikeforce 2006-2010.

Hey folks! On Monday, I posted the stats for WEC from 2007 to 2010 and tonight, I have the numbers for STRIKEFORCE.

The numbers for SF are tough to analyze because of the Challenger/Young Guns cards as well as the fact that the early cards had a very mixed bag regarding talent.

2010 thus far:
# of fights: 43
KO/TKOs: 19 for 44%
Subs: 9 for 21%
Decisions: 14 for 33%
Draw: 1 for 2%

2009:
# of fights: 97
KO/TKOs: 33 for 34%
Subs: 34 for 35%
Decisions: 14 for 28%
DQ: 1 for 1%
No Contests: 1 for 1%

2008:
# of fights: 85
KO/TKOs: 31 for 37%
Subs: 28 for 33%
Decisions: 26 for 31%

2007:
# of fights: 47
KO/TKOs: 21 for 45%
Subs: 10 for 21%
Decisions: 15 for 32%

2006:
# of Fights: 47
KO/TKOs: 16 for 34%
Subs: 19 for 40%
Decisions: 10 for 21%
Draws: 1 for 2%

Overall:
# of fights: 319
KO/TKOs: 120 for 39%
Subs: 100 for 31%
Decisions: 93 for 29%
Draw: 2 for 1%
DQ: 1 for less than 1%
No Contest: 2 for 1%

Meaningless statistics: WEC finishes 2007-2010

Let me start out by saying the point of this post is to simply show the percetages of finishes.

For a while, I have been planning on taking a look at how fights end in the various orgs. Tonight, fueled by vodka and caffeine, I decided to start this project.

Here is a look at how fights have gone in the WEC in the last few years:

2010 thus far:
# of fights: 32
KO/TKOs: 5 for 16%
Subs: 13 for 41%
Decisions: 13 for 41%
Draw: 1 for 2%

2009:
# of fights: 80
KO/TKOs: 25 for 31%
Subs: 17 for 21%
Decisions: 37 for 46%
No Contests: 1 for 1%

2008:
# of fights: 61
KO/TKOs: 28 for 46%
Subs: 16 for 26%
Decisions: 15 for 25%
Draw: 1 for 2%
DQ: 1 for 2%

2007:
# of fights: 66
KO/TKOs: 21 for 32%
Subs: 28 for 41%
Decisions: 17 for 26%

Overall:
# of fights: 239
KO/TKOs: 79 for 33%
Subs: 74 for 31%
Decisions: 82 for 34%
Draw: 2 for 1%
DQ: 1 for less than 1%
No Contest: 1 for less than 1%

Week 5 of TUF XI continues to look good.

Episode five of THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER XI did a 1.3 rating with an average audience of 1.8 million.

According to Spike, the show also did a 2.6 in the Males 18-34 demo.

This season continues to be, excluding TUF 10, the strongest since TUF 3. While it is likely numbers will have a dip or two before the end of the season, things are looking good overall.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4: 1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.
Episode 5: 1.3 rating with a 2.6 in M18-34 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.

Week four of TUF XI continues strong season with increased ratings.

Episode four of The Ultimate Fighter 11 delivered season highs with a 1.5 overall rating, a 2.4 in Males 18 to 34, 1.9 in Males 18 to 49 and an average audience of 2 million.

Almost from day one, folks have been certain that the numbers would drop down to the levels of seasons 7-9 and even see some eps go under 1.0 and while that may still happen, Tito and Chuck appear to be keeping folks coming back for more.

It does not hurt that the fights are better than those on last season where the HWs plodded about until they gassed out.

Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.
Episode 4:  1.5 rating with a 2.4 in M18-34, a 1.9 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 2 million.

Yet another perspective on the incident after STRIKEFORCE: Nashville.

Ok, I realize damn near everyone and their dog has sounded off on the battle royale that took place after the main event at Saturday night's Strikeforce card. Now I am going to toss my own hat into the ring (whatever that means):

In my opinion, virtually all parties involved are, at least to some extent, to blame.

Jason Miller: Jason should not have interrupted Jake’s moment and his post-fight interview. If nothing else, it was rude and unprofessional. Even if he had been told to confront Jake, he should have waited until after the interview. We have seen Penn face-off against GSP at UFC 87 and Lesnar face off against Carwin at  UFC 111, but both times they were brought into the cage and waited until after the post-fight celebration and interview. I don’t think Miller was asked to do it, he simply wanted some of the spotlight and that is bush league. I will say I do applaude your decision to make a public apology. It was the right thing to do.

Gilbert Melendez, Nate and Nick Diaz: This was not a street fight and a member of your posse was not being jumped by a bunch of guys. If a fight did break out, let Jake defend himself. Interjecting yourselves into it was uncalled for and helped make the incident far worse than it needed to be. If you want to be a street thug, stay out of MMA and do it on your own time. For Nick, this is the 3rd embarrassing situation in the last few years. I understanding being true to yourself, but you are hurting yourself, the companies you work for and the sport you claim to love. Nate, you seem all too happy to follow your brother down this destructive career path. If you guys opt to behave like this, don’t complain when headling spots, title shots and/or other opportunities don’t come as quickly as they should. Your actions may well leave the powers that be leery of trusting you to do the right thing. Gilbert has apologized and Nick said "I apologize, it wasn't my fault."

Jake Shields: I can imagine how annoyed/upset you must have been to see Jason Miller stick his nose into your interview. He should not have done so, but was that worth getting into a fight? You have expressed a desire to face the best in the world and to become a standard-barer for the sport. That means acting like one.

Tennessee State Athletic Commission: While it was Strikeforce’s show, it was run under your supervision. Throughout the show, folks seem to wander in and out of the cage. Things could have been run better and now that something has happened, action needs to be taken. Be it reprimands, suspensions and/or fines, examples need to be made so this is less likely to occur in the future. Had the Noons/Diaz incident occurred in Nevada, Cali or another regulated state, it is likely that there would have been consequences. Let us make sure folks don’t think they get away with this kind of thing in the future.

Strikeforce: Some of what I said about the TSAC applies to you: There were, at times, dozens of people milling about in the cage. There needs to be restrictions as to who gets in and when. Event production has been an issue in the past with pacing and getting bouts underway in a timely manner, perhaps it is time to bring in some more experienced folk to handle the actual running of the shows. The UFC was quite smart when they hired Burt Weston, a man that makes sure everything is as smooth as can be. The right person will make sure things are more organized and give your other people less things to worry about.

Gus Johnson: I realize your comments were on the spur of the moment, but had this been a basketball game, would you have said Sometimes these things happen in basketball? Fights do occur in BB and happen more often than in MMA (obviously not including the scheduled bouts!) and your comments were off base and hurt a sport you appear to want to be a part of.

One last person: Caser Gracie. Today, Caser made the following statement:

"So a fight broke out at a fight. That's not a good thing, and I'm not condoning it ... but a lot of people are jumping on this because they're babies. The same night, they had an NBA fight. They want to talk about a fight at an MMA fight between MMA fighters."

"How would it be damaging?" Gracie said. "If you're a sports fan, you're used to seeing fights all the time. It's really, seriously, a bunch of pussies latching on to this and trying to make it a bigger deal than it is. Is it a good thing? It's not a good thing. We're sorry. Everybody involved has apologized.

"But you've got a lot of crybabies that are going to latch on to this to the bitter end, but they're not going to say anything when a hockey game has fights every night. Young sport, old sport – people are making a much bigger deal than this. It's hype; it's all hype."

After reading this, is anyone shocked that it was his students that started the actual fight and did most of the damage? Caser, you are a teacher and are preparing the next generation of the sports’ participants. You mention hockey, but it is an accepted sport today and a lot has been done in the past several decades to reign in the fighting, violence and injuries. The same is true of football. The games today are different than 50 years ago and the players can’t get away with nearly as much. And even when it does happen, penalties are applied and rarely do we see several people jumping on an individual, as your students did. And kicks to a down fighter are not even allowed in the actual bouts, much less afterwards. Once upon a time, both of those sports were seen as barbaric and the players hooligans. It took years and numerous changes to the rules and regulations to get past that. MMA is a young sport and if we want it to eventually be embraced by the media and majority of the public, if we want to see it in all 50 states, if we want it to truly a global pastime….we need to think before acting.

Your own students have, as I said before, been involved in less than professional behavior in the past. They have been criticized but maybe the spotlight should be put on you. While most trainers also work to make their students professionals and ambassadors to the sport, you appear to dismiss this as something unimportant. In the current season of the Ultimate Fighter, Tito actually brought in a P.R person to help the fighters prepare themselves for the future and to help them become true professionals. A little of that would not hurt Team Gracie. Truth be told, that inicident won't help Strikeforce keep going on CBS. Prior to the event, it was made clear CBS wanted everyone on their best behavior.

If you opt to ignore this, if you simply dismiss the pussies and crybabies, you risk having the sport you love pass you by. That would be a real shame. You are a legendary figure and one that should go down in the history books as being a part of the shaping of MMA.

And before I stop, let me say a few words about Dana White and his reaction to this:

Now Dana has offered up his own opinions on this and, not surprisingly, was quick to not simply criticize Strikeforce and CBS, but to attack them as well. Doing so only lessens the value and impact of his comments. Instead of simply addressing what happened, he had to complain about CBS not signing with him. The UFC is not part of what happened thus is not relevant here. Including them also is distracting as some on-line fans have used it to make this more of a UFC vs. Strikeforce situation. Once again, a more thought-out approach would have been more effective. A lesson he can’t seem to learn.

Some have been calling out certainly call Dana out on over-reacting, something he constantly does, and calling him a hypocrite because of the altercation at UFC 45, but jumping up and down about a UFC incident seven years ago is kind of silly. Cabbage/Tank did indeed happen, but it was ages ago and things have changed, both inside the UFC as well as outside, since then. The sport in general is held to higher standards.

The time to talk about it is right now. When actions have been taken, when penalties have been applied, we must move on. There are too many wonderful things to look forward to, to dwell on one regrettable moment in the rich history of our beloved sport.

Prelim numbers for STRIKEFORCE: Nashville.

The  overnights have come in and, as expected, the news is not good for Strikeforce.

STRIKEFORCE: Nashville averaged 2.63 million viewers, a drop of 31% from the overnights of the first Strikeforce show on CBS.

Here is how it went from half hour to half hour:

9:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.57 million (4th among networks), Adults18-49: 0.8/ 3 (4th)
9:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.55 million (4th), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (4th)
10:00 p.m. – Viewers: 2.89 million (3rd), A18-49: 1.2/ 4 (2nd)
10:30 p.m. – Viewers: 2.52 million (#3rd), A18-49: 1.0/ 3 (2nd)

These numbers are bad, very bad. Honestly, to secure a quarterly slot and a new contract, SF needs the final number to be 4.5 million or so. Worst case would need to be no less than the first show, which ended up at 4.042 million. And this is not simply a case of the MMA community seeing these as bad, the media that covers ratings are calling them bad and that will be heard by the higher ups at CBS.

And the mess with Team Gracie and Jason Miller will hurt them with the network as well. The fighters were told, in advance, that they were expected to behave in a professional manner which makes the post-main event mess even worse.  One more note about that: This is the 3rd embarrassing situation that Nick Diaz has found himself  in in the last few years. He had a scuffle with KJ Noons in the cage, the whole licensing mess last year and now this. I understanding being true to yourself, but he is hurting himself and the companies he works for. Nate seems all too happy to follow his brother down this destructive career path.

Strikeforce had had a 2 fight deal with CBS and that ended with last nights show. At best, SF will have to focus on the Showtime cards for a while and try to earn another shot on CBS. Worst case is CBS closes the door permanently.

Getting CBS was a key part of SF's plans to slowly move to a PPV model. The idea was that CBS would allow them to establish stars and become marketable enough that folks would see enough value in SF to pay for it. Without PPV, SF is relegated to a distant #2 and won't be able to woo top fighters to the brand.

This will also give M-1 a stronger position from which to negotiate from. The numbers certainly suggest that while Fedor was able to match the Elite/CBS numbers, he was a big part of the first show's popularity.

One other potential effect of this is that it will make re-signing Jake Shields even harder. They won't be able to offer as much exposure or the promise of  PPV money down the line.

Ratings for episode three of TUF XI.

Episode three of The Ultimate Fighter 11 did a rating of 1.3 with of TUF 11 generated a 1.3 HH with an average audience of 1.6 million viewers. The broadcast 1.63 in the M18-34 and 1.53 in the M18-49 demos.

MMA Payout has reported the numbers for Episode one of season eleven of The Ultimate Fighter. The show had a rating of 1.3 with a 1.63 for males 18-34, a 1.53 for males 18-49 and an audience of 1.6 million.


Season so far:
Episode 1: 1.5 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.9 million.
Episode 2: 1.2 rating with a 1.9 in M18-34, 1.54 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million
Episode 3: 1.3 rating with a 1.63 in M18-34, 1.53 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.6 million.

One interesting note is that the key demos have seen drops, but the audience is up slightly. That suggests new viewers coming from other age (and pos gender) groups.

Here is a look at where TUF 9 (10 was Kimbo and thus way higher than all other seaons) was at this point:
1 1.3 rating with a 2.1 in M18-34, a 1.8 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.8 million.
2 1.1 rating with a 1.3 in M18-34, a 1.2 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.5 million.
3 0.9 rating with a 1.13 in M18-34, a 1.2 in M18-49 and an ave aud of 1.2 million.

If TUF were to maintain a 1.2 for the season, it would be a slight step up. Odd are we will see some drops over the course of the season and maybe even a peak when Tito does leave. As long as the ave is a 1.0 or better, the show is safe.

Ratings for Episode 2 of TUF XI.

Episode two of TUF 11 did a 1.2 rating with an ave audience of 1.5 million viewers.

Episode one did a 1.5 with an ave audience of 1.9 million viewers.

By comparison, the second episode of TUF 9 (10 did monster numbers because of Kimbo Slice) did a 1.1 ratings.

TUF 11 starts out on a strong note.

MMA Payout has reported the numbers for Episode one of season eleven of The Ultimate Fighter. The show had a rating of 1.5 with a 2.1 for males 18-34, a 1.9 for males 18-49 and an audience of 1.9 million.

While numbers may indeed drop somewhat, I don't know that I would agree that they will dip below 1.0. By most accounts, Tito and Chuck go at each other and the the initial bouts were exciting enough (Exciting meaning folks got KTFO). I think there will be a drop, but it will still be a bit higher than seasons 6-9. I don't think any season will match season ten.

By comparison:
Ep one of TUF 10: a 2.9 rating with 4.1 million viewers
Ep one of TUF 9: 1.3 rating with a 1.8 in M18-49, 2.1 in M18-34 and an ave audience of 1.8 million.
Ep one of TUF 8: 1.2 rating
Ep one of TUF 7: 1.3 rating

Personally, I think Zuffa needs to space out the seasons more. Twice a year is too much to generate genuine excitement.

One other suggestion would be to shorten the period between the start of filming and the actual Finale. Start playing the first ep as the actual events are unfolding. It might help make things more interesting.

Zuffa has launched the Ultimate Fighter website, so they should put it to use. They like to keep the participants secret until right before the season starts. Instead, announce them all two weeks in advance and post bios and a video clip of each fighter. Give folks a chance to get to know all of them prior to the start. It might make the elimination round a little more interesting. It would also allow folks to connect with those that make it to the house a little faster. As the season goes on, add clips online of the guys talking about their lives, families, hopes and dreams. Again, it would help the viewers become emotionally invested in the fighters.

Lastly, we saw Mike Van Arsdale and Tiki Goshen verbally sparring last season, how about having an Asst. coach from each team square off on the finale? You would have to have Coaches that were all under contract, but it could make things a little more interesting.

Early estimates for UFC 111 very strong.

If early cable estimates are accurate, UFC 111 not only did better than I thought, it did better than anyone thought possible.

According to the latest Wrestling Observer (Subscription required), UFC 111 is in the range of 850,000 buys. That would make it the 6th biggest ppv in the history of the UFC (After 100, 92, 91, 66, 94) along with UFC 101. Since 101, only UFC 104 and 107 managed to hit 500,000 buys.

Now it is important to point out that early numbers can end up being way off. At this point, those estimates are coming from a limited number of providers. In the next 7-10 days, the overall number will become a little more accurate. But even if it does trend downward, it is unlikely to drop more than 100-150k buys, which would still put it a little over my own prediction of 675,000.

If true, it would appear to verify a couple of things:
A) GSP is one of the top draws the UFC has. He does well in the U.S. and brings 100k more buys from Canada. While Lesnar is bigger today, GSP has, with his mainstream appeal, the potential to be bigger down the line. His manager has done an excellent job marketing him to mainstream sponsors. They hired CAA Sports and that has helped them sign deals with the likes of Gatorade and Under Armour.

B) Frank Mir has become a bit of a draw. MMA and Cable insiders give Mir some credit for the 620K buys of 107. Frank is one of the best talkers in MMA. He was quieter than usual, likely afraid of saying the wrong thing after the Lesnar remarks. But his talking for, and his performance at, 107 made an impression with folks.

As I wrote previously, the UFC is hoping 111 starts a hot streak that goes well into the fall. Barring any major injuries, the future. It will be especially interesting to see if the success of 111 provides any momentum for UFC 112, a strong card that has the disadvantage of being on tape delay. It is the strongest overseas card the UFC has ever had and will show us just how much being on tape delay hurts a card. In the past, those cards have generally been weaker than most domestic ones. So while that delay may indeed have hurt them, the quality of the cards also played a part.

STRIKEFORCE CHALLENGERS VII gate, ratings and payroll.

On Friday night, Strikeforce ran their seventh Challengers card. Here are the numbers for it:

Attendance: 4,963 overall. No data has been released as to how many are paid and how many are comps.
Gate: $109,222.
These numbers are a notable improvement from the previous couple of Challengers shows. The gate was up 26% from the previous show.

Ratings: a 1.0 with 316,000 viewers. This show took place on free Showtime weekend this show certainly benefited from it. These numbers are up 111% from the previous challengers show.

Official payouts:
Lavar Johnson: $16,000 ($8,000 win bonus)
def. Lolohea Mahe: $3,000
Ron "Abongo" Humphrey: $7,000 ($3,500 win bonus)
def. George Bush III: $5,000
Andre Galvao: $10,000 (no win bonus)
def. Luke Stewart: $5,000
Miesha Tate: $5,000 ($2,000 win bonus)
def. Zoila Frausto: $3,000
Justin Wilcox: $12,000 ($6,000 win bonus)
def Shamar Bailey: $4,000
Daniel Cormier: $500 (no win bonus)
def. John Devine: $2,500
Total disclosed payroll was $73,000.

Note: Obviously Daniel Cormier made more than $500. The To Fight and To Win pay has to be reported to the SAC, but any and all other income does not. Signing bonuses for overall contracts or even for the fight agreement as well as gate or ppv percentages are not uncommon in MMA at the bigger levels. While none of the other guys on this card are likely to get any of those things, Daniel certainly did. Odds are good he gets a signing bonus that makes this worth his while.

The reason for constructing the contract this way could be a number of things. The simplest of which is Cormier and/or Strikeforce not wanting folks to know exactly how much was paid to this new fighter. His background certainly increases his worth and I would not be surprised if they feel he could be a legit draw both in terms of ratings and gate, but also in terms of mainstream media attention.

Final thoughts:
Overall, these numbers are very positive. If the next SF Challengers show can maintain these, it would suggest that Strikeforce is making some progress in terms of brand recognition. The increased ratings can be attributed to Showtime being free from another 50 million homes, but that does not account for the increase in attendance and gate. The attendance could be nothing since we don't know how many comps were handed out, but a 26% gate increase is impressive in any situation.

Episode 3 of PRIME TIME: GSP/Hardy bounces back.

A large sigh of relief could recently be heard coming from the Zuffa offices.

After a 50% drop in veiwership from episode one to episode two of Prime Time: GSP/Hardy, things took a turn for the better with the third and final episode.

Wednesday night's show drew an ave of 613,000 viewers, up 107,000 from last week. That number is not too far off from the final ep of the GSP/Penn series (662k).

GSP/Hardy:
Episode 1: 1,000,000
Episode 2: 506,000
Episode 3: 613,000
GSP/Penn:
Episode 1: 880,000
Episode 2: 825,000
Episode 3: 662,000

Last week, I talked about some of possible reasons for the drop. Looking back, I really do think St. Paddy's day did a number on it. This recovery is solid and does show that there is a sizeable number of folks interested in the match-up. I also think being just days before the bout played a role, media coverage really increased in the last several days.

Episode three was fairly strong, with Hardy stepping up and delivering in the mic. He came across as confident and took more than a few jabs at GSP. After a lackluster second episode, some spice was certainly needed.

I think the buyrate will be 625-675k, and likely closer to the latter.

Episode 2 of Prime Time: Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy takes a big drop.

And there was no joy in Mudville...ok, it is not that bad, but the second episode of Prime Time: GSP vs. Hardy can't have Zuffa and Spike folk dancing around the desks.

Ep 2, which aired on Wednesday night, drew 506,000 viewers and.43 rating, down from 1,000,000 and a rating of about .9. Losing half the audience is a real surprise, but looking at the promotion of the show, it makes some sense. Spike inadvertently aired commercials of Prime Time: GSP/Penn. Now one could shrug it off if it happened once, but they it repeatedly. Earlier this week, Spike also accidentally released a promotional photo for TUF 11 that revealed the final members of the two teams. Oops. Does Spike have some new interns?

I don't have the demos of males 18-49 and 18-34, but am hoping to get them. Did St. Patrick's Day play a part? I spent the entire day on the road for a funeral and drank not a drop (despite being 1/4 Irish) but there are plenty of folk that spend the entire day and night boozing mightily. That may have played some role, but likely not all of it.

Episode one was, in my opinion, very strong. GSP showed a bit of fire and Hardy was brash and in your face. But ep two was just sort of there. Not bad, but more of the same and little to really grab out attention. GSP is training with great guys, we know that. Dan Hardy does not like GSP's trainer giving him little chance of winning. What did Dan expect him to say? And Dan, your own coach was talking down GSP in ep house. There is this saying about glass houses.

But the entire episode just seemed to wander along. There was little narative to pull us in. Ep three is the go home show and they really need to turn it up a notch and get folks fired up. Most of us think that Dan is going to lose, but a strong ep should help get folks emotionally invested in the match-up.

My suggestions for the final ep is to have Hardy address the fact that he is in a postion to become the first U.K. fighter to become a champion. With a win, he would become the poster boy for U.K. MMA. There has to be mixed feelings about that. Pride to be sure, but a hell of a lot of pressure. If nothing else, he is headling a PPV, something only one other U.K. fighter has done before.

For GSP, talk about what a win here does for him in terms of his legacy. Since the last PT series, he has successfully defended his title twice. With each win, he comes closer to being labeled the greatest WW of all-time (a title that is currently worn by Matt Hughes).

For each of them, this fight means something different. Talk about it and build up the stakes.

Hardy, along with the PT crew, has done a good job of building himself up. I think he has to realize that even if he loses to GSP, this show offers him a chance to increase his visibility and become more of a name fighter. And he has mixed cockiness with good-natured humor and the result is a fairly likeable and funny guy.

Another downside is that the Countdown to 111 followed Prime Time. The Countdown show was pretty decent, with Frank Mir delivering more than a few entertaining moments. Frank is a guy that can add buys with his mic work. Had this been seen by a larger audience, it would have helped the buy rate.

I think 500,000 is the base in terms of success. Under 500k is, by virtually any measure, a failure. So this is certainly bad news, but not a disaster. But there is a real chance that the third ep could dip below that number. The second ep was not overly exciting and GSP/Penn trended downward with each ep (Starting with 880,000 and ending up with 662,000). Nothing on this show is going to pull buys away from 111, but an inability to hold onto those initial viewers throws some cold water on those that thought ep 1 gave 111 a shot at 800 or 900k.

My original prediction was 675,000 buys and I think that is pretty realistic. 700-750k would not be a shock, but I don't see this doing more than 750k no matter what. The initial thoughts within Zuffa were between 600 and 650k and that is reasonable. It has been some time since a PPV had the momentum of a previous strong show and, as I said last week, many folks have gotten out of the habit of buying the shows. With 111, they have a run of very strong shows and it should be sunny skies from here on out. But first they have to get everyone back on board the ppv train.

Will the bout with Dan Henderson be Jake Shield's final with STRIKEFORCE?

On April 17th, Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields will defend his title against Dan Henderson in the main event on CBS.

Jake is on a hell of a roll, having not lost in over five years. And while he has wins over folks like Robbie Lawler and Nick Thompson as well as UFC fighters Paul Daley, Mike Pyle, Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami, this will certainly be the biggest challenge of his career. Dan is an Olympic level wrestler and has a right hand that Michael Bisping is likely still having nightmares about.

But there is one other thing that makes this fight even more interesting: It is the last on Jake's Strikeforce contract.

Jake to Graciemag.com:

I’m focused on winning a fight at a time. Now I’m focused on Dan Henderson for this fight and after that my contract with Strikeforce ends. I’ll talk with Strikeforce and the UFC to find out which one I will work for.

So while many feel that Dan will beat Jake, there is a very real chance that if he wins, he could walk away from Strikeforce as the reigning MW champion.

Even though he has been doing well at 185, his normal weight class is WW and the best WWs in the world are in the UFC. He has never been shy about wanting to face GSP and this would be a chance for him to not just come to the UFC, but do so in a very high profile fashion. You have to figure Dana, a person that loves battles and one-upping the opposition, would love to have a SF champion walk into the UFC.

That seems like a hell of a risk for Coker and co to take. I have not heard anything about them negotiating, so I am guessing that Jake and co are looking to roll the dice and see if he can pull off the win and become a high-profile free agent. Of course a loss would certainly remove much of his leverage. While the UFC still might have some interest, I don't think he would be quite as mouth-watering a prospect as he would be with the belt still around his weight.

Most of the apparent Team Ortiz and Team Liddell.

In announcing that Stephan Bonnar would be hosting the TUF aftermath this year, Spike appears to have revealed the members of Team Ortiz and Team Liddell. We know that 28 fighters take part at the start, but the picture (shown on the left) offers up a pretty solid indication as to who makes it into the house.

TEAM ORTIZ:
Kris McCray
Fighting out of: Dumfries, VA / Chute Boxe
Record: 5-0
Age: 28
Son of a military father, Kris McCray was raised in Germany, where he excelled on the soccer pitch and garnered All-Europe honors in high school. In 1999, McCray moved permanently to the United States, where he has served parts of 8 years (6 active, 2 inactive) as a member of the US Army Reserve, while also finding time to earn his Associates Degree in Social Studies from Northern Virginia Community College.

Clayton McKinney "aka The Money Shot"
Fighting out of: Orlando, FL / Jungle MMA
Record: 4-2
Age: 27
A teammate of TUF (season 8) alum Tom Lawlor at Jungle MMA, Clayton McKinney is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt that supplements his training by working security at a local bar in Orlando.

Nick Ring
Fighting out of: Calgary, Canada / B.D.P. Martial Arts
Record: 10-0
Age: 30
Nick Ring returned to MMA in May 2009 following a three year stint away from the sport after suffering a devastating knee injury. In that time, Ring boxed professionally to the tune of a 4-1 record with 3 knockouts.

Kyacey Uscola
Fighting out of: Sacramento, CA / Team Alpha Male
Record: 18-15
Age: 28
Kyacey Uscola joins the cast with 33 professional MMA fights on his record. He trains with Team Alpha Male and Urijah Faber out of Sacramento.


Jamie Yager
Fighting out of: Los Angeles, CA/Kings MMA
Record: 2-1
Age: 25
A standout varsity letterman in baseball and football, Yager was the 2001 Athlete of the Year at South Pasadena High School in California. He picked up training MMA as a hobby and went straight from training to the professional ranks in February 2008 as part of BET’s “Iron Ring,” where he defeated his opponent by TKO.

TEAM LIDDELL
Rich Attonito
Fighting out of: Deerfield Beach, FL / American Top Team
Record: 7-3
Age: 32
A 2001 graduate of Hofstra University in Long Island, Rich Attonito wrestled several different weight classes as a member of the Pride wrestling team including the 167lb. and 197lb. divisions. Attonito has been training with American Top Team since he moved to Florida in 2006. He is the strength and conditioning coach for UFC veteran Luigi Fioravanti.

Charles Blanchard
Fighting out of: Coconut Creek, FL / American Top Team
Record: 7-2
Age: 24
A 2-time All State wrester in high school, this single father is a jiu-jitsu brown belt and a published poet.

Josh Bryant
Fighting out of: Tulsa, OK / Absolute Combat Alliance
Record: 10-0
Age: 29
A member of the Absolute Combat Alliance camp in Tulsa, OK, Josh Bryant sports a perfect 10-0 professional mixed martial arts record. When not training, Bryant works as a manager for Mazzio’s Italian Eatery in Oklahoma.

Joseph Henle
Fighting out of: Thousand Oaks, CA / Big John McCarthy’s MMA
Record: 3-0
Age: 26
Joseph Henle splits time training at Big John McCarthy’s MMA and working as a substitute teacher and wrestling coach in Thousand Oaks, CA. Henle earned his MBA in Financial Planning from California Lutheran University in ’06. He speaks fluent Japanese.

Court McGee
Fighting out of: Orem, UT / Throwdown Elite Fight Team
Record: 9-1
Age: 24
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist out of Orem, UT, Court McGee beat “The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom” runner-up DaMarques Johnson in 2007 by submission

Brad Tavares
Fighting out of: Las Vegas, NV / TapouT
Record: 4-0
Age: 21
At 21, Brad Tavares is the youngest of this season’s cast members. Originally from Hilo, HI, Tavares recently relocated to Las Vegas and trains full-time with TapouT.

Now I am sure some of you eagle-eyed folk will notice that there are 14 fighters in the picture, yet I have only listed 11. That is because I can't quite figure out the others. So if you can tell who the other three are, let me know. Because, quite frankly, I alredy spent more time on this than a normal person would.

UFC Prime Time numbers suggest there is light at the end of the tunnel for the UFC.

First, let me say I am honored to have been asked to share my own thoughts for Budo MMA Good time jamboree. Ok, that is not the name of the site, but it would make for a decent title....don't you think?

On Wed the 9th, the UFC aired Episode one of UFC Prime Time: GSP vs. Hardy. That ep had an ave audience of one million. That is about 15% above the ave for Penn/GSP. They also did a 1.1 rating among males 18 to 34 and 1.0 for m18 to 49. Both of those are up from Penn/GSP.

Heading into this first episode, there were those within Zuffa that were expecting a buyrate of 600-650,000 for this upcoming showdown (UFC 111) and that it is the PPV that will start the upswing in buyrates.

Anyone that follows MMA (and thus pretty much everyone that will read this) knows that the last six months, for the UFC, have been not unlike the trials of Job (in the bible). Murphy's law has run rough shot over the company, with injuries, illness, disease and infections beating the crap out of the roster. I would list the number of line-up changes, but I just don't think we have that kind of bandwidth.

But I will say that the Fall of 2009 was supposed to be a big one for the UFC. Things did not turn out that way and from UFC 105-109, the UFC did all it could to salvage the shows and keep the train on the rails. Overall, they did a decent job considering the troubles they were having.

But that did not change the fact that the shows simply lacked the star power and big name match-ups that made the first half of the year so profitable. While some of these cards still ended up being damn good, they failed to send fans to the piggy bank for money to buy the shows. Some of the worst buyrates in the last four years occurred in the last six months.

This has resulted in some MMA internet writers to proclaim that the sky is indeed falling. Reading some of the articles, one would be certain that Dana White was put on suicide watch and that Frank and Lorezno Fertitta are likely down to their last one million dollars.

I don't think things are quite that dire. I certainly agree that those shows have killed the momentum that was built by UFC 91-100, but profits have still been made and things can be put back on track. It will just take some good shows and star power. The kind of star power Mr. St-Pierre brings into UFC 111.

As excited as folks around the Zuffa HQ were prior to the first ep of Prime Time: GSP/Hardy, they have to be even more ecstatic after seeing these numbers. Dan Hardy understands the PR game and is doing a pretty good job so far. And GSP is being presented as a great MMA fighter that is looking to take it to the next level and become one of the true greats.

If they are able to sustain these numbers for the second and third episodes, UFC 111 might deliver numbers well beyond the initial expectations. Until I see what those other eps do, I am not going to alter my own prediction: 675,000 buys. Keep in mind that the countdown show will have Shane Carwin and, more importantly, Frank Mir hyping their own bout. Frankie seemingly dreams about Lesnar more than a fat guy dreams about...Hey Buffalo, what do you dream about?

Just kidding! But Frank's apparent obsession has made for some entertaining sound bites and should be able to entice more than a few to buy 111.

And barring another visit by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, UFC 111 should be the start of a strong Spring/Summer for the UFC and keep Mr. White from entering said suicide watch.