Early estimates for UFC 111 very strong.

If early cable estimates are accurate, UFC 111 not only did better than I thought, it did better than anyone thought possible.

According to the latest Wrestling Observer (Subscription required), UFC 111 is in the range of 850,000 buys. That would make it the 6th biggest ppv in the history of the UFC (After 100, 92, 91, 66, 94) along with UFC 101. Since 101, only UFC 104 and 107 managed to hit 500,000 buys.

Now it is important to point out that early numbers can end up being way off. At this point, those estimates are coming from a limited number of providers. In the next 7-10 days, the overall number will become a little more accurate. But even if it does trend downward, it is unlikely to drop more than 100-150k buys, which would still put it a little over my own prediction of 675,000.

If true, it would appear to verify a couple of things:
A) GSP is one of the top draws the UFC has. He does well in the U.S. and brings 100k more buys from Canada. While Lesnar is bigger today, GSP has, with his mainstream appeal, the potential to be bigger down the line. His manager has done an excellent job marketing him to mainstream sponsors. They hired CAA Sports and that has helped them sign deals with the likes of Gatorade and Under Armour.

B) Frank Mir has become a bit of a draw. MMA and Cable insiders give Mir some credit for the 620K buys of 107. Frank is one of the best talkers in MMA. He was quieter than usual, likely afraid of saying the wrong thing after the Lesnar remarks. But his talking for, and his performance at, 107 made an impression with folks.

As I wrote previously, the UFC is hoping 111 starts a hot streak that goes well into the fall. Barring any major injuries, the future. It will be especially interesting to see if the success of 111 provides any momentum for UFC 112, a strong card that has the disadvantage of being on tape delay. It is the strongest overseas card the UFC has ever had and will show us just how much being on tape delay hurts a card. In the past, those cards have generally been weaker than most domestic ones. So while that delay may indeed have hurt them, the quality of the cards also played a part.